Tahir ul Qadri shut down Islamabad, Shias mourned targeted killings for four days and three nights, and Laal Masjid protesters can keep diplomats and government officials under lock and key for days. There is little doubt that religious groups can shut down the twin cities, but can they shake up the election? A closer look suggests not — because the religious vote is fragmented to a degree — so speaking of one might not even make sense.

If you ask Rawalpindi’s Sheikh Rashid—the man who left the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to first join General Pervez Musharraf before he branched out on his own—his defeat in the 2008 election could be attributed to the Laal Masjid faction.

“Those PML-N folks whipped up sentiment against me, by stoking the fire of resentment after the 2007 Laal Masjid operation. Their mantra, Laal Masjid ya Laal Haveli, make people think I was against religion. I lost as a result,” said Rashid in an interview with Dawn, as he sat in his red fort off Murree Road in Rawalpindi.

Observers disagree on whether Rashid’s analysis of his 2008 defeat is accurate—some say that the constituency was never his to begin with, but rather a hard-core PML-N heartland—but his reading betrays another reality: The power of religious groups in the twin cities.

From Tahirul Qadri’s dharna to anti-Islam film protests to Shia mourners demanding state intervention in Lashkar-e-Jhangvi’s targeted attacks, the twin cities are all too aware of the enormous street power of religious groups.

However, in the run-up to May 11, many are asking a very relevant question: While religious groups can turn out hundreds if not thousands, will they be able to make a mark in the twin cities polls?

When it comes to campaign messaging, there is little doubt that the anti-Rashid mantra—Laal Masjid ya Laal Haveli—was a powerful and precise method for garnering support for a vote against Sheikh Rashid, and for the PML-N. A closer look at the 2008 election campaign in the twin cities and beyond suggests that major political candidates, from Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, Hanif Abbasi and Makhdoom Javed Hashmi, played to the frustrations born out of the liberalism of the Musharraf regime—from the Laal Masjid operation to what many felt were tacit approvals for drone attacks and open military cooperation with the United States.

However, while the influence of religious groups on mainstream political discourse is and remains significant, it does not necessarily result in larger support for religious groups who decide to contest in the elections.

Organised religious representation

The major religious figure set to take NA-48—the capital constituency—is Mian Aslam of the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI). However, according to experts Jamaat-i-Islami functions more like a mainstream political party—albeit with a heavy dosis of ideology—than a religious group. Most of the vote for Aslam will not come from a core voting bloc of JI supporters, but from the communities that he has been engaging with for the past five years.

Of the three major religious factions within the twin cities—the Barelvis, the Deobandis and the Shias—only the latter has a political party that is collectively attempting to win seats in the upcoming elections.

The Majlis-e-Wahdat–ul-Muslimeen (MWM) has pitched a number of candidates in Rawalpindi and Islamabad.

“We have Allama Asghar Askari contesting in NA-48, but we did not field in anybody in NA-49 because the voters there are heavily influenced by baradaris rather than faith,” said a senior officer bearer of the party.

However, Allama Asghar Askari said that there were around 40,000 to 50,000 Shia votes in NA-48. He was confident that the number could result in astonishing results for the MWM. However, many of the Shias he is referring to disagree. When asked about their vote on May 11, their answer was simple.

“The answer is no,” said Israr Kazmi, resident of I-10. “Faith is universal and voting or politics is national. The two are not the same.”

Mr Kazmi, who is Shia, said, “I will be Shia even if I am in Saudi Arabia. But when I am there, I will follow the rules of that country and not vote. The same philosophy applies here. We do not vote on the basis of religion, sect or cast.”

Shias have a strong presence in and around the twin cites, not only in terms of large chunks of populations scattered in various pockets in rural and urban areas of Rawalpindi and Islamabad but also because the head offices of all the three main Shia parties are based in Rawalpindi and Islamabad.

While MWM has a head office in Islamabad, two other groups are also based here—but reflect the same tendency. Based in Sattelite Town, Rawalpindi, Tehreek Nifaz-e-Fiqah Jaferia (TNFJ), one of the oldest Shia groups, has remained neutral despite the tendency of their followers to vote for the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).

Sajid Naqvi, the chief of Islami Tehreek which sits across the road in Rehmanabad, says that there is an official election alliance with the PPP. However, it remains unclear whether its members will vote PPP because of the alliance, or whether they would have voted that way despite the agreement.

The same goes for twin city Barelvis.

Many observers have said that Barelvis have lacked any real political leadership. The tried and failed attempt by Tahirul Qadri to give the community a political voice through his party, the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), indicates that when it comes to this region, not a single Barelvi political group has a real shot at the elections.

Also, while people have a strong faith in and commitment to shrines around the twin cities, their followers do not consider the directives of their Pir Sahib while casting votes.

Amjad Malik, a resident of Mehria Jafar colony, where local residents are strong followers of various shrines including Golra Sharif, said people will not vote according to the wishes of their Pir sahib because politics is considered a separate area from religion and spirituality.

“Pir sahib told our elders to vote for the PPP in the 2008 elections, but out of around 6,000 votes in Mehria Jaffar, the PPP got a mere 150 compared to the PML-N’s Anjum Aqeel, who received 2,000 votes,” says Amjad Malik, who, himself, is a supporter of PM-N.

This time around Pir Sahib Golra Sharif has said that he is praying for Anjum Aqeel’s success, but many of his followers are jittery and unsure about whether they will vote for PML-N this time around—especially with the entrance of JI’s Mian Aslam.

“We are traditionally supporters of Nawaz Sharif, but I feel as a person Mian Aslam is a better candidate,” said Umar Farooq, a local resident of Mehria Jaffar locality.

Hard-liners and their muddled vote

The twin cities are, finally, all too familiar with the street power of Laal Masjid, banned Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ) (a reincarnation of Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan) and the various factions of the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam. However, while they all fall under the same theological wavelength, they have different voting patterns.

Lal Masjid, which has a large network subordinate mosques and madrassas spread across rural Islamabad, has officially remained aloof from electoral politics until, but sources in their management have said they would support Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar of the PPP in NA-49, mainly because of their good relations with Taji Khokhar, his uncle.

On the other hand, the banned ASWJ has yet to find a potential candidate for their votes, while the JUI’s have fielded various candidates that could, essentially, split the vote.

Observers say that these more hard-line Deobandi groups have no problem allying in the streets. On some issues, like the anti-Islam film after the summer of 2012, Shias and Barelvis might even join them on the twin city streets to protests what they see as insults to Islam. However, the nitty gritty of politics, with the particular favours and relations that politicians carry out for or have with different religious factions results in a fragmented religious vote—where religious groups end up voting on wholly different parameters.