GIVE the minister credit where it’s due: Ishaq Dar had promised economic stabilisation to set the stage for a take-off and, thus far, the minister has delivered on his stabilisation promises at least. The string of successes in recent months for the all-powerful and micro-managing finance czar of the country is already long and, to his obvious pleasure, looks set to grow further in the immediate future. Be it the sentiment in the private sector or the much-needed approval from the IFIs led by the IMF or just generally a feel-good sentiment among the consumers, the mood on the economy has picked up. Animal spirits are flying high again, as it were. As ever, the medium- and long-term outlooks are a little more complicated than the government would want the public and investors to believe.

First, with many one-time or irregular inflows filling up the state’s coffers, what is the plan to consolidate and entrench these gains? Yes, the fiscal deficit may eventually clock in at an acceptable level this financial year, but is there any serious debate on or serious concern given to the next budget that will go into effect on July 1? Last year’s budget was a disappointment in terms of reforms on the revenue or expenditure side, a disappointment that the government has tried to cover up and compensate for by arranging special inflows and working on macro stabilisation. But surely another year of ad hoc financing of gaping holes in the budget, such as by accelerating the privatisation process perhaps, will do little to address the underlying structural problems. Simply put, spending twice as much as it earns in tax revenue is not a sustainable model for any government — not least if it comes on the back of years of massive borrowing. Are Mr Dar and his team willing to address the massive leakages on the revenue side and the gross wastage on the expenditure side? In any case, after defence, debt servicing and current expenditure of the federal government is met, there is hardly anything left in the budget for development priorities. Is that a concern for the PML-N?

Second, as the government rushes the economy into take-off mode, who is it really who stands to gain? Crony capitalism looks good in the beginning as investment grows and jobs are created, but soon enough, going by the international experience, the flaws become more and more apparent. In a weakly regulated economy, the big get bigger — and little ever trickles down to the rest. It appears the PML-N is all too willing to accept the creation of a class of super-wealthy individuals and families if it means eye-catching overall growth numbers. But those numbers could be meaningless if the vast majority are excluded from its bountiful effects.